The Institute of International Finance (IIF) published a report on July 21 in which it presents two medium-term macroeconomic scenarios for Lebanon.
In the optimistic scenario, which assumes the implementation of reforms and the launch of an IMF programme, the IIF predicts that nominal GDP will return to its 2019 level by 2026 (approximately USD 55 billion, against USD 24 billion). billion USD in 2021).
Inflation would be gradually brought under control, public debt would become sustainable again (going from 222% of GDP in 2021 to 73% of GDP in 2026) and the central bank’s available reserves (excluding Eurobonds and gold) would be replenished, rising from 9 billion USD in 2022 to USD 31 billion in 2026.
In the pessimistic scenario, which assumes the absence of reforms and an IMF programme, the IIF forecasts that nominal GDP would remain at a very low level (23 billion USD in 2026) and that inflation would remain high (+35% on average in 2026). Public debt would remain unsustainable (202% of GDP in 2026) and central bank reserves would be almost exhausted by 2026 (1 billion USD).
Source : Embassy of France in Lebanon