Israel : Parliamentary elections, Netanyahu in the lead, on the right

It was already the fifth legislative election in three and a half years. But if the elections have followed each other, they are not alike. Indeed, the last deadline of March 2021 had marked a decline of Likud and the coming to power of the centrist Yair Lapid, already taking over from Binyamin Netanyahu. However, these elections of November 1, 2022 mark the return to the top of the leader of Likud, well helped by a skilful coalition also qualified as very right.

Supported throughout the election campaign by the far-right Religious Zionism party and the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, Binyamin Netanyahu will still have to negotiate with these parties over the coalition’s political objectives and ministerial posts. to enlist their support.

Upon arrival, Binyamin Netanyahu’s bloc is expected to win 65 of the 120 deputies in the Knesset – the unicameral parliament of the State of Israel. Enough to give the former Prime Minister a comfortable majority to form a government after 17 months spent in opposition with his far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies. Of the 65 seats credited to the bloc, 32 would go to Likud, 19 to the Orthodox parties and a record 14 to the far right.

The centre-left bloc comes out of this election weakened. The centrist Yesh Atid coalition, led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, won 24 seats. With the allied parties, including the Union for the State formation of current Defense Minister Benny Gantz who would glean 12 seats, the total rises to 50 seats, too weak to form a government.

Symptoms of this counter-performance, the left-wing parties Avoda and Meretz. If the first should however win four seats – he had won seven in the last election – the second should not cross the electoral threshold: he will therefore lose all representation in Parliament.

Finally, note that two out of three Arab factions are also expected to enter the Knesset, according to the provisional results. Raam and Hadash-Taal could win four to five seats each, saying they are determined to oppose far-right “fascism”.

According to several media, Binyamin Netanyahu wants a new Knesset speaker to be sworn in before November 15. He will form a government as soon as possible in order to « quickly oust » current Prime Minister Yair Lapid from power.

Speaker Isaac Herzog’s office said Nov. 2 that it will begin meeting with party officials in the Knesset to hear their recommendations for the prime minister next week, once the election results are finalized and certified.

Isaac Herzog will then have until November 16 to announce which deputy he will instruct to form a government, although he may do so sooner. In previous elections, party consultations usually lasted two days. MPs tasked with forming a government will then have 28 days to do so, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.

Likud: 32 seats (right, pro-Netanyahu)

Yesh Atid: 24 seats (centre, anti-Netanyahu)

Religious Zionist Patri – Otzma Yehudit: 14 seats (far right, pro-Netanyahu)

Union for the State: 12 seats (center-right, anti-Netanyahu)

Shas: 11 seats (Orthodox, pro-Netanyahu)

United Torah Judaism: 8 seats (Orthodox, pro-Netanyahu)

Israel Beytenou: 5 seats (center-right, anti-Netanyahu)

Joint List: 5 seats (Arab faction, anti-Netanyahu)

Hadash-Ta’al: 5 seats (Arab faction, anti-Netanyahu)

Labor Party: 4 seats (centre-left, Lapid bloc)

Sources : The Times of Israel, i24news