The recent appreciation of the Algerian dinar against the euro and the US dollar, particularly in recent weeks, will make it possible to reduce inflation, increase the purchasing power of the citizen, while strengthening confidence in the national economy, indicated at Algerie Presse Service several economists.
For the professor of economics, Mohamed Hamidouche, “the appreciation of the Algerian dinar against a basket of currencies, in particular the American dollar, will be felt by a relative fall in the prices of imported materials”.
This drop in prices, he explained, “in addition to improving the purchasing power of households, will benefit economic operators versed in the import of semi-finished products and equipment, which will significantly increase their turnover before the end of the year”.
“These positive repercussions” will lead to “an increase in investor confidence in the national economy,” he added.
Mohamed Hamidouche expected an improvement in the value of the dinar “over at least the next half year, i.e. until the end of the first quarter of next year”, noting that these forecasts cannot go beyond this period in due to geopolitical developments which weigh to a large extent on the value of currencies.
For this expert, the appreciation of the national currency is explained by two main factors, exogenous and endogenous.
The exogenous factor relates to the rise in the price of hydrocarbons on the international market, due to the Ukrainian crisis and the subsequent imbalances in supply and demand, in particular after the sanctions imposed on Russia, he explained. , thereby recalling that global analyzes generally support that this geopolitical crisis would continue.
With this upward rate of hydrocarbon prices, “foreign exchange reserves should reach 100 billion USD at the beginning of next year”, which will further strengthen the value of the dinar against the dollar.
As for the endogenous factor at the origin of the appreciation of the dinar, Professor Hamidouche underlined that he found an explanation in the foreign trade policy adopted by the government which is working to strengthen non-hydrocarbon exports and to encourage Sonatrach to achieve new explorations.
This approach has given rise to an unprecedented increase in Algerian exports, on the one hand, and to a control of imports or even a brake on the erosion of foreign exchange reserves, on the other hand, he pointed out. .
Economics expert Mourad Kouachi believes that the Algerian dinar has recently experienced “a historic leap in official banking transactions, in the sense that the euro and the dollar have stabilized around 140 Da”. An increase, he continues, considered as “an unprecedented increase in the value of the national currency for more than a decade, the dinar having appreciated by 12.5% in recent days compared to the same period of last year”.
The academic predicts “a continuous rise in the value of the dinar for the rest of the current year and even during next year”, given the geopolitical developments caused by the crisis in Ukraine, which explains the stability the price of gas at 300 Usd for 1000 M3 and that of oil at more than 100 Usd/barrel.
On the reasons for the rise in the value of the dinar, the expert specified that they are linked, in the first place, to the decline in the value of the euro and the dollar on the world market, and to the increase in reserves. exchange rate in Algeria, which “gave the dinar additional capacity in the face of adverse inflationary shocks”. Hydrocarbon exports are expected to exceed USD 50 billion by the end of the current year, an increase of 15% compared to 2021.
With the appreciation of the value of the dinar, Algeria should witness a “stabilization of prices, a slowdown in inflation rates, and consequently an improvement in purchasing power and an increase in the growth rate of savings of around 3.6%”, reassured Mourad Kouachi.
For this academic, the best way to preserve the appreciation of the national currency over time is to increase non-hydrocarbon exports.
The expert Ishak Kharchi, believes that the rise in the value of the dinar against the euro and the dollar “will greatly benefit the national economy, in that investors in Algeria will have to convert less to acquire factories ready”.
The depreciation of the euro and the dollar will also reduce the value of Algeria’s imports and therefore strengthen the balance of the balance of payments, which is an important economic indicator, he explained.
Economist Dr. Fethi Ferhane said that the rise in the value of the dinar “will help alleviate inflation, given the large rise in prices on the world market and the resulting repercussions on the country’s import prices”. , ensuring that the rise of the dinar has a positive impact on input prices.
According to the Bank of Algeria, the Dinar exchange rate reached on purchase, Monday, 140.2665 DA for 1 dollar and 139.9158 DA for 1 euro.
Source : Algeria Press Service