Libya: Real GDP growth is expected to remain robust in 2024 at 9.5 %, thanks to the increase in its crude oil production

Libya’s real GDP growth should remain robust in 2024 at 9.5 %, thanks in particular to the increase in crude oil production and the start of reconstruction projects in cities ravaged by deadly floods in September 2023, estimated Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research in a report published on Monday, February 5, 2024.

This rate, however, marks a slowdown compared to that recorded during the past year (19.5 %), due in particular to less favorable base effects following a sharp contraction in GDP in 2022 and an equally spectacular rebound the year next. Despite the expected slowdown, Libya is expected to post the fastest growth rate in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region this year.

Crude production, which accounts for more than 95 % of exports and around 97 % of the country’s revenue, has already increased from an average of 981,000 barrels per day in 2022 to 1.16 million barrels in 2023. While the national oil company has set itself the goal of reaching the milestone of 2 million barrels per day over the next few years, oil production is expected to increase by 5 % this year. A subsidiary of the Fitch Ratings rating agency specializing in research and analysis of financial data, Fitch Solutions also indicated that the expected strong growth of the Libyan economy will also be driven by planned investments in the hydrocarbons sector and in the reconstruction of cities affected by flooding following the passage of Mediterranean storm Daniel in September 2023.

While revenues from crude exports will remain high, public spending is expected to increase by 5.2 % in 2024, while household consumption will increase by around 5.6% in a context marked by the decline in oil production.